Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in the US

Key points:

• The intensity and frequency of recent extreme weather events, including wildfires, floods and heatwaves in the US have been attributed to climate change caused by burning fossil fuels.
• Emissions from US oil and gas operations rose roughly 42% between 2011 and 2022.
• The oil and gas industry has spent decades lobbying to undermine climate action.
• Consumption of fossil fuels remains high, but the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy is on the rise with government support.

This briefing about the ways in which oil and gas is fuelling extreme weather in the US follows our study into the attribution science connecting man-made climate change to extreme weather events and how fossil fuel companies continue to add fuel to the fire. Read the global view here.

Fossil fuels impact on weather events in the United States

Extreme weather events attributed to climate change

At least 66 attribution studies tying weather events to climate change have been made in the US including, for instance, recent rain and floods (16 studies), droughts (15 studies), storms (11 studies), heatwaves (six studies) and wildfires (six studies).  

Over 100 million people in the Southern US were under heat alerts during the unprecedented July 2023 heatwave. Without human-induced climate change, the extreme heat experienced that summer would have been nearly impossible. Climate change makes a July 2023-like heatwave in North America much more likely, occurring roughly once every 15 years, and 2°C (3.6°F) hotter than it would have been without human influence.

In August 2024, California experienced one of its largest wildfires, with over 560 homes and buildings destroyed as firefighters battled 100°F (38°C) heat. Hotter and drier conditions resulting from climate change are causing increasingly large and severe wildfires, doubling the area burned in North America since the 1980s in a wildfire season that is now two months longer. 

Climate modelling by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) determined the effects of greenhouse gas emissions associated with 88 of the largest fossil fuel and cement companies on the scale of wildfires, finding that these emissions were responsible for 48% of the rise in fire-danger conditions in the region. In turn, 19.8 million acres, or 37% of the area burned by forest fires in the western US and southwestern Canada since 1986 can be tied to pollution from these companies’ products. 

Principal climate scientist at UCS, Kristina Dahl, said of the findings: “We’re hopeful that with new evidence in hand, policymakers, elected officials, and legal experts will be better equipped to truly hold fossil fuel companies accountable in public, political, and legal arenas.”

Role and responsibility of the oil and gas industry in the United States 

According to self reported data collected by the Environmental Protection Agency, US emissions from oil and gas operations rose roughly 42% between 2011 and 2022. These production-related emissions account for a tiny portion of the industry’s overall emissions, more than 90% of which come from the use of oil and gas products (called Scope 3 emissions). 

Oil and gas firms continue to expand production in the US where the government continues to give out new licences. Further expansion via the building of LNG export infrastructure on the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana is a health threat to local residents as air pollution contributes to premature deaths (and increases exposure to volatile gas prices), and will lead to a significant increase in US greenhouse gas emissions.

Fig. 1: Evolution of domestic energy production in the US, 2000-2022 (TJ)

Climate damages owed by fossil fuel firms in the United States

Climate science and policy think tank Climate Analytics has made a case for fossil fuel companies to pay loss and damage. Based on the social cost of carbon (using an estimate of USD 185 per tonne), it finds that the 12 most polluting fossil fuel companies, which it calls the “dirtiest dozen,” would be responsible for around USD 15 trillion in economic damages for production between 1985 to 2018, a period in which they earned USD 21 trillion in profits. Four of these top polluters are publicly listed firms, of which two are American multinationals. 

ExxonMobil, the fourth-highest emitting company, and first among non-state-owned enterprises, is calculated to be responsible for USD 1.2 trillion in damages between 1985 and 2018, while earning profits of USD 1.2 trillion. Eighth-ranked Chevron is estimated to have caused USD 900 billion in damages and made USD 600 billion in profit.

Towards accountability

There is increasing understanding about the fossil fuel industry’s awareness of climate change. For example, its own scientists accurately predicted global warming trends in the 1970s. This early knowledge and a track record of lobbying against climate action – including government support for renewable energy and electric vehicles – has led to hearings in the US Senate and over 20 lawsuits from states and municipalities seeking damages for extreme weather events. These lawsuits claim large oil companies owe damages for concealing their own scientific knowledge about climate change and thus deceiving the public about the danger of global warming caused by their products.

Fossil fuels must be phased out to slow temperature rises

Supply of fossil fuels 

The 2023 UN Production Gap report cites US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that between 2024 and 2050 production of oil will grow to 19 million-21 million barrels per day, while gas is also projected to increase, reaching 1.2 trillion cubic metres in 2050. In 2023 crude oil production was 12.9 million barrels per day. The federal and state governments continue to subsidise fossil fuel producers through measures including tax credits, amounting to USD 4 billion in 2021.
Climate Action Tracker gives the United States an overall rating of Insufficient, the middle of its five rankings. The rating is based on its lack of climate finance and policies (including its voluntary emissions reductions submitted as part of the UN Climate Change negotiations) that would limit temperature increase in line with climate science.

Fig. 2: Evolution of total energy supply in the US, 2000-2022 (TJ)

Reducing demand for fossil fuels

In the last decade, changes in administrations have seen drastically divergent levels of commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While Presidents Obama and Biden supported the inclusion of the US in the Paris Agreement, President Trump withdrew the country in 2020. Despite the swings in the political cycle, the US has seen a growing use of renewable energy and electric vehicles. 

However, the consumption of energy is still primarily fossil fuels. In 2023, 38% of primary energy consumption was from petroleum, 36% from natural gas and 9% from coal.

Although emissions from electricity generation fell between 1990 and 2023 (due to a reduction in coal-fired power stations) they have remained relatively flat in the transport and industrial sectors. 

Energy

The US has the second-largest installed capacity of solar and wind energy in the world. This rise has relied on tax credits since the 1990s that were continued in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Solar capacity has increased from 594 MW in 2000 to 139,205 MW in 2023 (for comparison, in China solar capacity grew from 33 MW to 610,111 MW during the same time). Meanwhile, wind energy capacity increased from 2,377 MW in 2000 to 147,978 MW in 2023 (China’s wind capacity grew from 341 MW to 441,895 MW).

Fig. 3: Solar and wind installed capacity, 2000-2014 (MW)

Transport

Stricter auto emissions standards and tax credits through the Inflation Reduction Act have led to a rise in the purchase of electric vehicles. Sales of battery electric vehicles rose from 100,000 in 2013 to 3.5 million in 2023. Over the same period sales increased from 0 to 16.1 million in China.